Black and Blue Review

Black and Blue Review

Carolina Panthers News and Coverage for the Digital Age

Cam Newton and Andrew Luck: Very Different Yet So Similar

View image | gettyimages.com

View image | gettyimages.com

Monday night’s first-ever meeting between former No. 1 draft picks Cam Newton and Andrew Luck comes at a strange time. Newton’s name has been mentioned in MVP chatter while Luck continues to take hits during a disappointing season. It’s almost like they’re in a bizarro world, at least when you consider their reputations the past few years.

Since Newton came to Carolina in 2011, he’s been picked apart nationally for his flaws. Meanwhile, Luck has been touted as a future Hall of Famer. But as 2015 is proving, the two aren’t all that different. The systems they play in are, though.

"We're a different style offense than what they're using up there. I think it'd be unfair to compare,” Panthers coach Ron Rivera said. 

That's a good point, but comparing Newton and Luck actually reveals similar career arcs. Before we get there, here's a look at their career passing numbers:

Career Passing G Comp Att Pct Yds TD INT Sck Rate
Newton 68 1,245 2,104 59.2 15,701 91 61 163 84.8
Luck 53 1,180 2,023 58.3 14,355 97 52 112 85.5

Those completion percentages and passer ratings are remarkably similar. Newton's taken far more sacks, but what really jumps out is despite playing 15 fewer games than Newton, Luck has thrown for more touchdowns, and he's not far behind in passing yards.

But much of that points to the different offenses. Luck has had marquee vertical threats like wideout T.Y. Hilton while Newton's top target has always been tight end Greg Olsen. Luck makes more big plays, but that means he takes more risks downfield. He's also averaging about 38 passes per game, seven more than Newton:

Per Game Comp Att Yds TD INT Sck
Newton 18.3 30.9 230.9 1.3 .90 2.4
Luck 22.3 38.2 270.8 1.8 .98 2.1

While Luck has piled up bigger passing numbers, Newton has made up some of the difference on the ground:

Career Rushing Att Yds TD
Newton 521 2,816 37
Luck 210 1,032 12

But just like the overall passing numbers, comparing total rushing stats can be misleading.

“[Luck] has the ability to tuck it and run. He’s a great athlete," Rivera said. "They don’t run as much, as far as the quarterback called runs, but they have that ability because he’s such a good athlete.”

So while the Colts use Luck's arm, the Panthers ask Newton to do more with his legs:

Rushing per game Att Yds
Newton 7.6 41.4
Luck 4.0 19.5

Much of the reason for the hype surrounding Luck has been for a good reason. He's won. Luck led the Colts to 11-5 seasons in each of his first three years, but outside the perennially weak AFC South, he's a .500 quarterback:

Career Records vs Div Outside Div Overall Pct
Newton 14-10 22-21-1 36-31-1 54.7
Luck 17-2 17-17 34-19 64.1

While Newton helped take the Panthers to the playoffs in two of his four seasons, Luck went three-for-three, including a run to last year's AFC Championship. He also turned a 38-10 deficit against the Chiefs into a 45-44 win during a 2013 Wild Card game, the second-largest comeback in NFL playoff history. But neither quarterback has delivered sterling numbers in the postseason:

Postseason Record Pct TD INT
Newton 1-2 61.3 5 5
Luck 3-3 56.5 9 12

The further you break it down, the more similar the franchise quarterbacks appear. The biggest outlier is Luck's interception percentage in this, his fourth season:

  Newton Luck
1st Season
Comp Pct 60.0 54.1
Int Pct 3.2 2.9
2nd Season
Comp Pct 57.7 60.2
Int Pct 2.5 1.6
3rd Season
Comp Pct 61.7 61.7
Int Pct 2.7 2.6
4th Season
Comp Pct 58.5 56.2
Int Pct 2.7 4.3

So what should we make of all this?

Luck has had a nearly sterling reputation, but he hasn't been markedly better than Newton. They're both good, young quarterbacks with plenty to do before they get a Hall of Fame bust. The differences mostly lie in their offenses than skill.

"Unless they're playing in the same offense then that's the only time you compare anybody," Rivera said.

"It's apples to oranges in a lot of respects."

View image | gettyimages.com

View image | gettyimages.com
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