It's been 12 years since I last won an NCAA Tournament pool.
UConn, Duke, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech — all in my Final Four. There's no way I would've pulled off that sweep if I wasn't a Yellow Jackets fan (long story), but there's a reason that memory is in my head right now.
It reminds me a bit of last year when, on the morning of the NFL Draft's first round, I wrote my "best guess" for the Panthers' pick at No. 25 was offensive tackle D.J. Humphries. I then made linebacker Shaq Thompson a "wild card."
Lo and behold, when Arizona took Humphries at No. 24, Carolina wasted no time taking Thompson.
"They were the two guys we were talking about. D.J. and Shaq — those were the two," general manager Dave Gettleman said that night.
"They were sitting right next to each other. They were holding hands."
While proper reporting certainly helped me narrow things down, I'm not trying to take a victory lap a full year later. Instead, the point I'd like to make is predicting some of this stuff is about as easy as filling out an NCAA bracket.
The Panthers are sitting all the way back at No. 30 this year, and until last week, they didn't have any glaring holes. Sure, they could use some parts, especially to help the pass rush, but it was always going to be tougher to nail their pick this time around.
Not surprisingly, in the days since Josh Norman was allowed to go free, many draft experts tweaked their expectations for the Panthers. They obviously need a cornerback, right?
Yeah, but why would we expect Gettleman to do what most assume?
So ...
BEST GUESS: Hunter Henry, TE, Arkansas
But the Panthers need corners and pass rushers, and they already have Greg Olsen!
Can you imagine the draft grades Gettleman will get if he does this?
That's not why I'm going with Henry. OK, that may be a small part of it, but mostly, it just makes sense.
As I wrote last week, one of the most underrated moves of the offseason was one Carolina didn't pull off. They tried adding tight end Jared Cook, who wound up in Green Bay.
The Panthers want to compliment Olsen with another pass-catching end, and Henry is by far the best at his position in this draft. The drop-off from him to other ends is cliff-like, especially compared to positions like defensive end, defensive tackle and cornerback.
And remember, the Panthers aren't just trying to win a Super Bowl. The draft is arguably their most important step in building toward sustained success.
Olsen seems to be getting better every year, but he's 31 and going into his 10th season. Thomas Davis seems to be getting better every year, too. But the Panthers took Thompson last year as the 32-year-old Davis was going into his 11th season.
WILD CARD: Trade
Which group of picks would you rather have?
1.) 1st Rd (30), 2nd Rd (62), 3rd Rd (93)
2.) 2nd Rd (32), 2nd Rd (62), 3rd Rd (65), 3rd Rd (77)
The first group is what the Panthers currently own.
As a hypothetical, say a quarterback like Paxton Lynch falls. The Broncos, who are at No. 31, need a quarterback. So do the Browns, who sit at the start of the second round with the 32nd pick.
If Cleveland called Gettleman offering No. 32, their extra third-round pick, and to swap third rounders — improving the Panthers' choice in that round 16 spots — would he do it?
Because of the 5th-year option included with first-round picks, it may be unlikely, but he wouldn't be unwilling to listen, not just to the Browns, but to whoever may call with a deal.
The Panthers don't have a bulk problem these days, so it's not like they need as many picks as possible. But this is a strong draft through at least three rounds, and four possible starters could outweigh a 5th-round option and three possible starters.
Other Thoughts
—If Baylor receiver Corey Coleman somehow drops to No. 30, forget Henry as the pick. The Panthers would sprint up with their card to take Coleman.
—Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry has gotten a lot of buzz in the fan base, but it's worth looking up Devontae Booker if you don't know much about him. The Utah running back is 23 and coming off a knee injury, but he's the type of three-down back that would intrigue Gettleman.
—It's tough to see the Panthers staying put with their first two picks — No. 30 and No. 62. Guys they have with first-round grades will likely fall into the second, so a trade like the one they made to grab Devin Funchess last year wouldn't be at all surprising.
—If the Panthers stay at No. 30, it'll be the latest they've ever picked in the first round. And if you're wondering what that means for your sleep schedule, here's when the 30th picks were announced the past three years:
Packers take safety Damarious Randall at 11:18
49ers take defensive back Jimmie Ward at 11:29
Rams take linebacker Alec Ogletree at 11:36
So while the first round appears to be moving quicker, the 30th pick likely won't be announced until after 11.