Facing an offense much more potent than their own, the Panthers needed to control the tempo last Thursday night. They failed miserably.The Saints ran 20 more plays and had a 10-minute, 36-second time of possession advantage. If the Panthers allow the Eagles to do something similar Monday night, the final result will be similar.The Panthers have to take the air out of the ball, not only because that’s how they best utilize their offensive personnel, but that would also help limit what the Eagles want to do — run a lot of plays.Philadelphia’s high-tempo offense is averaging nearly 71 plays per game, 10 more than the Panthers. Amazingly, since the Eagles run their plays so quickly, they rank 31st in time of possession.The Panthers rank 16th in that category, but last season at this time, they were 1st. They were also 3rd best on 3rd down with a 47 percent conversion rate after Week 9 last year. They’re currently converting just 40 percent of their third downs, which ranks them 20th.But while third down is a problem area, perhaps a bigger issue is what’s happening before they even get there.“We need to make more positive yards on first and second down. Not have holding calls, not have negative plays,” offensive coordinator Mike Shula said.”One of the things we did last year, is when we did have some negative plays, we were really good on second and long.”That seemed like an interesting claim. Were the Panthers truly better on second and long last season, and if so, how?Marc Hochman, BBR’s resident analytics expert, looked up the numbers this week, and here is what he found:
FEWER 2ND-AND-LONGS, BUT LESS SUCCESS
This chart shows the Panthers have needed seven or more yards on 63 percent of their 2nd downs this season. That’s down from 68 percent last year. But as Shula said, they were better in 2013 in those situations. They averaged 1.2 more yards than they are currently.
PASSING IS A PROBLEM
When you drill further into the numbers, the results from the run game on 2nd-and-long are essentially the same from year-to-year, but the passing results have taken a dive of nearly two yards.
THE SECOND-DOWN STRUGGLE
This chart contains results from all 2nd downs the last two years, and the numbers aren’t pretty. The Panthers are doing pretty much everything worse.
NEWTON’S STILL NOT NEWTON
The chart below shows a large increase of incompletions on 2nd down, but take another look at the chart above. The scramble yards have fallen off a cliff.Quarterback Cam Newton’s slow start as a runner this season was well documented, but after he racked up a career-high 17 carries against the Bengals, most assumed he was finally ‘unleashed.’That may not be the case.He’s certainly not scrambling as much on 2nd-and-long. When in those situations as a passer last season, he scrambled seven percent of the time. This year it’s just two percent.
CAM NEEDS TO BE CAM
When the Panthers face a 2nd-and-long Monday night, pay close attention to what happens next. There’s no question Newton has to be more accurate, but it may benefit the Panthers if he instead brings the ball down and takes off more than he has so far this season.
Charts via Marc Hochman, an analyst and consultant specializing in analytic based decision making.