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Are the Panthers Currently on a Run of ‘Sustained Success’?

Through 21 seasons, four head coaches and three general managers, Panthers' owner Jerry Richardson still hasn't lifted his Holy Grail.

Behind the Lombardi Trophy, item 1b.) on Richardson's wish list is to have a winning program. It's what ultimately doomed John Fox, who never put together back-to-back winning seasons. It's what Ron Rivera knew when he followed Fox in 2011.

"To help build this team," Rivera said, listing his goals at his introductory press conference, "get it to a Super Bowl-caliber team, win, and sustain that for a period of time."

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The importance of the two-part to-do list continued a couple of Januarys later when Richardson named Dave Gettleman general manager. Plenty of teams make flash in the pan postseason trips. Some even win a Super Bowl. Gettleman understood it's often more challenging — and potentially more rewarding — to achieve sustained success.

Technically, Rivera and Gettleman still haven't given Richardson consecutive winning seasons, but their three straight playoff appearances have tripled the franchise's previous best run.

So can this regime claim they've built something that qualifies as sustained success, or does that require more wins and postseasons?

"I don’t think it’s a number," Gettleman told BBR earlier this month. "Part of it is a culture. We talk about earning the right around here all the time."

 

Carolina's "Culture"

 

Gettleman sometimes has a much different opinion of who deserves to be inside the locker room than many outside of it. He claimed releasing receiver Steve Smith was "a football decision" even though the team's all-time leading receiver still had tread on his tires. But if we accept how much Gettleman factors in "culture," it was a football decision. In many ways, so was the shocking call to release cornerback Josh Norman from his franchise tag.

We don't know all that happened behind the scenes this spring, but we do know Norman's asking price was much higher than Gettleman would ever go. And throughout last season there were indications Norman wasn't part of Carolina's core, like a small but telling sign at the Super Bowl.

From Tuesday to Thursday, the team chose 10 players to sit on risers during media availability. Norman, an All-Pro and arguably the Panthers' most colorful personality, was never picked and spent those three days sharing a small table off to the side.

As he continued to illustrate his philosophy about culture, Gettleman explained:

"You earn the right to be on the roster, you earn the right to get to training camp, you earn the right to be on the 53. Now every week you earn the right to win the game. We talk about that all the time. That’s a culture and they get it, they understand it."

 

Winning While Reconstructing

 

As messy as the salary cap situation was when Gettleman arrived, former general manager Marty Hurney did his successor plenty of favors. Eight of the Panthers' 10 Pro Bowl selections in 2015 were drafted by Hurney, who also hired the man who's won Coach of the Year two of the past three seasons.

Gettleman's greatest feat has been the pace at which he's built Hurney's base into a much sturdier foundation. To understand that process, start with the team that seemingly came out of nowhere to go 12-4 in Gettleman's first season.

"I think we’ve proven that ‘13 wasn’t a mirage, and that ‘13 team and the ‘15 team are different teams," he said. "There are so many personnel changes it’s scary."

Here's how many:

 

Panthers' Game Day Roster vs. 49ers, 2013 Divisional Playoff

Still in Carolina

 

  • Cam Newton
  • Greg Olsen
  • Ryan Kalil
  • Mike Tolbert
  • Charles Johnson
  • Star Lotulelei
  • Thomas Davis
  • Luke Kuechly
  • Graham Gano
  • Ted Ginn Jr. 
  • Colin Jones
  • J.J. Jansen
  • A.J. Klein
  • Chris Scott
  • Mario Addison
  • Kawann Short
  • Derek Anderson

No Longer in Carolina

 

  • Steve Smith
  • Jordan Gross
  • Travelle Wharton
  • Nate Chandler
  • Byron Bell
  • Brandon LaFell
  • DeAngelo Williams
  • Dwan Edwards
  • Greg Hardy
  • Captain Munnerlyn
  • Melvin White
  • Quintin Mikell
  • Mike Mitchell
  • Brad Nortman
  • Josh Thomas
  • Kenjon Barner
  • Drayton Florence
  • Robert Lester
  • Richie Brockel
  • Jason Williams
  • Jordan Senn
  • Geoff Hangartner
  • Brian Folkerts
  • Ben Hartsock
  • Brandon Williams
  • Domenik Hixon
  • Colin Cole
  • Frank Alexander
  • Chase Blackburn

That list doesn't include Norman or running back Jonathan Stewart, who were inactive. And Ted Ginn Jr. squeezed in a season with the Cardinals before coming back to Carolina. But of the 46 Panthers who were active for that playoff loss, only 17 are still around.

Roster turnover is commonplace in the NFL, but replacing 29 game day spots in two and a half years is a big number for a three-time division champ. As a point of comparison, only 19 of the Seahawks who lost to the Panthers in January weren't on Seattle's active list when they won the 2013 Super Bowl. 

And consider this: Of these 22 projected* Panthers' starters for Week 1 in Denver, 12 were somewhere other than Charlotte during the 49ers playoff game:

1/12/14 vs. 49ers

 

QB — Cam Newton
RB — DeAngelo Williams
FB — Mike Tolbert
WR — Steve Smith
WR — Brandon LaFell 
TE — Greg Olsen
LT — Jordan Gross
LG — Travelle Wharton
C — Ryan Kalil
RG — Nate Chandler
RT — Bryon Bell 

DE — Charles Johnson
DT — Dwan Edwards
DT — Star Lotulelei
DE — Greg Hardy
LB — Thomas Davis
LB — Luke Kuechly
LB — Chase Blackburn
CB — Captain Munnerlyn
CB — Melvin White
S — Quentin Mikell
S — Mike Mitchell 

9/8/16 vs. Broncos*

 

QB — Cam Newton
RB — Jonathan Stewart
FB — Mike Tolbert
WR — Kelvin Benjamin
WR — Devin Funchess
TE — Greg Olsen
LT — Michael Oher
LG — Andrew Norwell
C — Ryan Kalil
RG — Trai Turner
RT — Mike Remmers

DE — Charles Johnson
DT — Kawann Short
DT — Star Lotulelei
DE — Kony Ealy
LB — Thomas Davis
LB — Luke Kuechly
LB — Shaq Thompson
CB — Bené Benwikere
CB — James Bradberry
S — Kurt Coleman
S — Tre Boston

Despite the makeovers at receiver, on the offensive line and in the secondary, the Panthers have gone 25-11-1 the past two seasons. And when they kick off at Denver in 71 days, they'll return 17 of the starters who fell to the Broncos in February.

But the NFL's unpredictability has acted like rocket fuel in its never-ending rise in popularity. The Panthers' time near the top could soon disintegrate quicker than it took to get there last season. That's why Rivera spent the spring preaching about starting from the bottom.

"I think he’s handled it perfectly," Gettleman said when asked how Rivera's managed his players since the Super Bowl. 

"I feel that we’ve got a sense of purpose. We got close, but no cigar and I think these guys realize that we have an opportunity to get back."

 

What Is Sustained Success?

 

Before Gettleman came to Carolina, he had a hand in 13 playoff teams, including three that won the Super Bowl. Stops in Buffalo, Denver and New York each presented versions of sustained success, which isn't a one-size-fits-all kind of thing.

The Bills averaged more than 12 wins and won four AFC titles from 1990 to 1993, but they infamously never won a Super Bowl.

Neither had the Broncos until Gettleman's last year there in 1997 — the second of Denver's nine winning seasons during an 11-year stretch.

During his 15 seasons in New York, the Giants won at least nine games eight times and the Super Bowl twice. It could've been three rings if the Ravens didn't have one of the best defenses in NFL history.

"Baltimore was a much better team than we were, they had a great team. That was an absolutely suffocating defense,” Gettleman said.

"I just realized — thinking out loud — I’ve been involved with a couple of teams that have lost two Super Bowls to the best defenses in the league. So maybe when we say, 'Offense scores points and defenses win championships,' there’s something there.

"Just saying."

 

Not There ... Yet

 

Many would argue letting a Pro Bowl cornerback walk is an odd way to build a championship defense, but Gettleman's first three seasons in Carolina have earned him a sizable benefit of the doubt.

160124 Panthers v Cardinals NFC Champs_033He inherited a franchise that had one winning record and playoff appearance in its past seven seasons. Two winning records and three playoff appearances later, the Panthers are the class of the NFC. Or they were, at least.

Now they face a hurdle no one's cleared since Gettleman's final year in Buffalo. It's been 23 years since a team last went back to the Super Bowl a season after losing it. So while Gettleman believes Super Bowl hangovers are worse for the winning side, he admits there's something to the current losers' drought.

"Obviously, it’s a challenge," he said. "There was an article on NFL.com a few days ago on the records of the teams after a Super Bowl loss and how few of them can get back to the promised land.

"But it took Denver two years. They got back and won it."

That may not be ideal encouragement for fans who fully expect the 2016 Panthers to remain atop the NFC. But what's more important is it's unlikely last year's run was just a flash in the pan. And though the top two items on Richardson's wish list remain incomplete, 1b.) is much closer to reality than it's ever been.

"I’ll let you guys decide when we’ve reached sustained success," Gettleman said. "How’s that?"

Deal.

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  • Michael LaRocca

    Oh yeah, what Rivera and Gettleman have achieved qualifies as sustained success. The question is how long they can continue to sustain it. The top of the league is so competitive that a small mistake can have a large cost. As I’ve noted before, Hurney wasn’t a bad GM, but I never felt he knew more than I do. Gettleman obviously knows a lot more than I do.

  • koda57

    Like em or not the Patriots are the only team to consistently win in the salary cap era. Mr. Richardson has set a great foundation; Gman and Company are doing a great job of building a consistent winner and the future looks even brighter.
    Hopefully the Panthers can become to the NFC what the Patriots have been in the AFC (without cheating and staying within the rules). That would make the Panthers the NFL’s best organization but IMO they already are the BEST!!