The NFL is pretty much a 365 day-a-year headline-making machine, but not all headlines are equal. With the bulk of free agency come and gone, much of what's left to fill the four months between now and the start of training camp is the draft and offseason workouts.
To appease the insatiable appetite of NFL fandom, we in the world of content generation need filler. In a way, that's what the Josh Norman storyline is becoming.
Plenty has already been said and written about the Panthers' standoff with their top corner, and with no resolution in sight, plan to hear and read much more in the months ahead. But when you connect the dots, this story appears to have an obvious and inevitable ending.
Norman's Side
Last week's reports that Norman's asking for a long-term contract that averages $16 million a year became big news, but was it?
Norman has said numerous times he wants to be paid what he feels he's worth. Because he believes he's the best corner in the NFL, $16 million is a predictable starting point for his side of the negotiations.
NFL's Richest Cornerback Contracts
| Player | '16 Avg. | Guarantee |
|---|---|---|
| Darrelle Revis | $14.02 | $39.00 |
| Patrick Peterson | $14.01 | $47.37 |
| Richard Sherman | $14.00 | $40.00 |
| Josh Norman | $13.95 | $13.95 |
| Trumaine Johnson | $13.95 | $13.95 |
| Joe Haden | $13.50 | $22.68 |
| Janoris Jenkins | $12.50 | $28.80 |
figures, in millions, via Spotrac
As the above chart shows, the franchise tag puts Norman's 2016 salary slightly behind Darrelle Revis, Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman. Again, Norman believes he's better than those guys, so the Panthers would likely have to commit at least $14.5 million a year to please him.
Stick with me now, remembering we're looking at this through Norman's eyes, ones that have seen the salary cap skyrocket.
When Peterson and Sherman signed extensions in 2014, the cap was $133 million. It was $143 million when Revis signed with the Jets last spring. Now it's $155 million. So the cost of inflation would mean a new contract for the league's top-paid corner should eclipse $16 million.
Many around the league would disagree with Norman's self-assessment, but most would agree he's a better corner than Janoris Jenkins. But because Jenkins hit the open market this spring, he was able to land a long-term deal with the Giants that includes more than two times the guaranteed money Norman will make under the franchise tag.
That can't be easy to stomach, and that's why it's tough to blame Norman for trying to maximize what could be his only chance at a big, multi-year payday.
Panthers' Side
Let's take another look at that chart of highest-paid corners with some more details:
| Player | '16 Avg. | Guarantee | Age | Starts | Pro Bowls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrelle Revis | $14.02 | $39.00 | 30 | 125 | 7 |
| Patrick Peterson | $14.01 | $47.37 | 25 | 80 | 5 |
| Richard Sherman | $14.00 | $40.00 | 27 | 74 | 3 |
| Josh Norman | $13.95 | $13.95 | 28 | 38 | 1 |
| Trumaine Johnson | $13.95 | $13.95 | 26 | 33 | 0 |
| Joe Haden | $13.50 | $22.68 | 26 | 68 | 2 |
| Janoris Jenkins | $12.50 | $28.80 | 27 | 58 | 0 |
Norman, who turns 29 in December, is younger than only one guy on that list. And while he could argue his limited starts means he's not really that "old," it's an awfully small sample size compared to the players he wants to leapfrog.
Next, imagine this scene: Norman's agent sits down with Panthers general manager Dave Gettleman and slides over a piece of paper. Gettleman sees it's asking for more than the $12.36 million per year the Panthers have committed to linebacker Luke Kuechly. That's a non-starter, right?
The NFL's best cornerbacks usually make more than inside linebackers, but it's hard to imagine the Panthers giving Norman a bigger long-term deal than the 24-year-old "quarterback" of their defense.
Plus, it's important to remember what Gettleman has done with his secondary since coming to Carolina. To say he doesn't value that group isn't fair, but he clearly has a pecking order when it comes to positions of importance. Cornerbacks aren't at the top of that list.
Fast Forward
Norman hasn't signed the franchise tag and he's in no hurry to grab a pen before July 15. That's the deadline for the two sides to agree on a long-term deal. It's no secret they're nowhere close right now.
During his most recent national media tour, Norman not-so-subtly hinted he won't be around for offseason workouts. The risk is if he gets hurt while working out on his own, the Panthers could rescind the tag.
It's possible Norman could take this all the way to and through training camp, when players only get a per diem. The big checks come in when the season begins. But if Norman really wants to drag this out, it's likely the latest he'd go is up to Week 1.
Seattle's Kam Chancellor, who was under contract, held out through two games last year. But before him, the last notable guys who pulled multi-game, in-season holdouts were Emmitt Smith (1993) and Joey Galloway (1999).
Rentals don't always work out, of course. See: Julius Peppers, Greg Hardy. But the Panthers are comfortable committing $14 million to Norman this year and believe their locker room is strong enough to self-police what may become a potential distraction.
Much Ado About Nothing?
Because deadlines spur action, perhaps something will come together in June or July. If that happens, this will be a Jim Folsolm-esque post I'll wish I could erase from the Internet. But all signs points to Norman playing under the tag in 2016. After that, we could be back in a similar spot next year at this time.
As stubborn and as principled as he may be, it's tough to see Norman sitting out and bypassing a $14 million payday. It's just as tough to see the Panthers caving in to his desire to be the game's top-paid corner. They do want to give him a long-term deal, but if it's going to happen, he'll have to tone down his demands.
Norman is easy to like as a person and his rise isn't just a clichéd rags-to-riches story. Unfortunately for him, it seems he's losing the PR portion of this staredown. When Charles Johnson, Mike Tolbert and Brandon Boykin all take less to be in Carolina, many in the fan base wonder why Norman is being greedy. But it's often unfair for us to say what a guy should do with his money, especially in a sport with such a short shelf life.
Norman has a good argument. So do the Panthers. If and when they don't hammer out a long-term deal, it won't necessarily be one side's fault. If there's blame in this, it should go to a rule that allows teams to deny someone a chance to capitalize on what the market says they're worth.