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The Panthers head into the upcoming draft armed with nine picks – one in each round and a pair of compensatory picks. But those two extra fifth-rounders will likely be their last comp picks until at least 2017. Yup, it appears they’ll be shut out next year even after losing a marquee player like defensive end Greg Hardy.

According to team sources, Carolina won’t even be included in the complicated and secretive formula that decides which teams get extra choices.

In order to be eligible, a team has to have lost more qualifying unrestricted free agents than it gained. Currently, the Panthers’ additions outweigh their subtractions:

GAINED

S Kurt Coleman

LB Jason Trusnik

CB Charles Tillman

LOST

DE Greg Hardy (Cowboys)

CB James Dockery (Raiders)

A reminder – only true unrestricted free agents factor in this process, so these guys don’t count against the Panthers:

OT Michael Oher (released by Titans)

WR Ted Ginn (released by Cardinals)

WR Teddy Williams (not tendered by Jaguars)

WR Jarrett Boykin (not tendered by Packers)

RB Jordan Todman (not tendered by Jaguars)

OT Jonathan Martin (released by 49ers)

Since they’ve added three and lost just two, Carolina won’t even get past the first step of the comp pick process unless at least two of these now former Panthers sign elsewhere by May 12:

LB Chase Blackburn

C Kevin Matthews

G Fernando Velasco

OT Garry Williams

(UPDATE: Bell signed with the Titans on April 22; Velasco signed with the Titans on June 9.)

Even if that happens, Hardy’s situation is why the Panthers are unlikely to get much in return.

Without getting into the myriad of ways he would or wouldn’t count as a loss, the key is there’s still a strong feeling around the league that Hardy’s facing a lengthy suspension. There’s a good chance he won’t play and earn enough to add much to the Panthers’ comp pick formula. So instead of waiting for the NFL to make a decision and hoping Hardy would get them something next year, they chose to fill holes now with Coleman, Trusnik and Tillman.

An extra pick that could have been as high as a third-rounder would have been handy, but consider it one more ‘what could have been?’ left behind by Hardy.